Thursday, August 15, 2024

Let's look at the polls

Read in browser

On Politics

Thu Aug 15 2024

Rebecca Morin | Senior National News Reporter

@RebeccaMorin_

Hello! I'm Rebecca Morin, senior national news reporter at USA TODAY. Next week I'll be at the DNC in Chicago. Be sure to follow along for updates from the Windy City. And don't miss your last chance to fill out this survey.

4 days until the Democratic National Convention. 81 days until Election Day. And my first week down as the new On Politics writer!

Trump lead erodes in battleground states, poll says

Another day, another poll showing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump's lead in the 2024 presidential race is shrinking. This time, a survey from Cook Political Report found that Harris is leading Trump in several swing states and closing in on other areas. Read more.

The survey findings include:

•	Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona.
•	Trump and Harris are tied in Georgia.
•	Nevada is the only battleground state where Trump still leads, the poll found.

Ok, but you're probably wondering whether this is going to change the outcome of the election. The new survey shows there are now new pathways have opened for Harris to seal the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. That comes after President Joe Biden was losing ground in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina before he ended his reelection bid.

A little politics pit stop

•	The beats go on: Trump keeps dancing as artists get outraged over his use of their songs.
•	Black women are in charge at this year's DNC. Expect a different kind of convention.
•	Is Arizona an 'emerging problem' for Donald Trump? He could return to the state soon
•	Columbia University president resigns months after protests over the Israel-Hamas war

Mark your calendars: The debates are set

Get ready for a primetime match-up between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz in October. A debate between the two running mates is set for Oct. 1 on CBS News. Harris and Trump have already agreed to a debate on Sept. 10. But on Thursday, we saw Harris' campaign agree to one more debate. Read more.

Is your grocery bill hurting your pockets? Harris wants to address that

Feel like your grocery bill is still too high? Harris on Friday will unveil a new proposal that calls for the first-ever federal ban on price-gouging from food and grocery industries. The proposal comes as she makes a major economic speech in North Carolina. Read more.

You asked, On Politics answers: How accurate are today's polls?

Thank you for all the questions I'm receiving (and keep them coming!) You can email me questions are rdmorin@usatoday.com. Staying with the theme of today's newsletter, here's a question from one reader: "Media keeps reporting that Harris is ahead in the polls …How accurate are today's polls?"

The issue with looking at polls isn't always the accuracy, but how they're being portrayed. Polling is always described as a snapshot of a single moment. Most polling is conducted days or weeks before the poll is released. Sentiments can change quickly after that.

We always look at what happened in 2016. While Democrat Hillary Clinton led in polling, Trump won the election. But one thing to note: Clinton did win the popular vote, but lost the electoral college. Polling isn't used to predict exactly what will happen in the election, just help forecast what to keep in mind as results come in.

Thanks for sticking with me this week. Questions, comments or weekend recommendations? Email at rdmorin@usatoday.com.